Job Market Paper
How to Silence Researchers? Evidence from Illiberal Policies in Hungary
with Raphaël Wargon [draft available upon request]
Abstract
We explore how contemporary attacks against academic freedom and illiberal policies have detrimental effects on innovation, focusing on academic research. Using rich national research repositories and international bibliometric data, we show that academics' research trajectories diverge sharply depending on their perceived political alignment. Academics perceived as political opponents experience large declines both in publication output and collaboration networks, each falling by about one quarter relative to pre-shock levels. Researchers working on politically sensitive topics are also disproportionately affected: they experience a 10% decline in total publications and a 30% decline in publications in top journals. Targeted researchers experience a loss of co-authors and are likely to shift their research agendas in response to these threats. We find that Hungarian researchers increasingly reallocate their publication efforts toward lower-ranked national-language journals and are more likely to leave the country altogether.
Past presentations: Innovation Seminar (LMU), Brown Bag Seminar in Innovation Economics (Collège de France and INSEAD), Applied Young Economists Webinar (AYEW), Political Economy & Public Economics Reading Group (University of Warwick), 2026 EAYE Annual Meeting, 2nd EUI ECO PhD Workshop (co-author), BSE Summer Forum Economics of Science and Innovation.
Upcoming presentations: CERGIC Internal Seminar, 8th International Conference on European Economics and Politics, NBER SI 2026 Science of Science Funding, EEA 2026 Annual Meeting.
Publications
with Philippe Aghion, Céline Antonin, David Strömberg, Xueping Sun, Raphaël Wargon and Karolina Westin [Last version]
Abstract: The 2018 China Initiative by the Trump administration complicated procedures and reduced funding for US-China research collaborations. Using Scopus data, we analyze its impact on Chinese research. We find that the China Initiative significantly lowered the average quality of both the publications and the co-authors of Chinese researchers with prior US collaborations compared to Chinese researchers with prior European collaborations. We estimate that the China Initiative reduced yearly citations for affected Chinese researchers by 6 percent. The effect was stronger for high-productivity Chinese researchers in US-dominated fields, especially when their US co-authors played a leading role.
Working Papers
with Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Gaétan de Rassenfosse and Raphaël Wargon [draft coming soon!]
Abstract: We contribute to the debate on the production of ideas by examining the scientific production of an entire field. We map the evolution of economic research by classifying 300,000 articles published in 1950–2020 using text analysis methods. We identify 90 distinct topics each characterized by a coherent set of themes and vocabulary. We document three main empirical patterns: topics show a rise-and-fall life cycle, aggregate scientific activity grows over time, and this growth is accompanied by a constant reset in the topic composition of the discipline, with newer topics progressively displacing older ones.
Past presentations: Brown Bag Seminar in Innovation Economics (Collège de France and INSEAD), 11th Monash-Paris-Warwick-Zurich-CEPR Text-As-Data Workshop.
Upcoming presentations: NBER SI 2026 Science of Science Funding.
with Cristina Aranzana [Working Paper]
Abstract: This paper studies the long-run political consequences of forced displacement when refugees carry distinct political ideas. With the collapse of the Spanish Republic in 1939, 500,000 left-wing leaning refugees fled into France, where logistical constraints quasi-randomly determined refugee camp locations. Exploiting this setting, we identify the causal effect of refugee exposure on political behaviour. Exposed municipalities shift away from Socialist support toward the Communist Party and display greater resistance activity and left-wing associational life.
Past presentations: 8th Economics and Politics Workshop, Congrès de l'Association Française d'Histoire Economique, UB PhD Seminar, Barcelona Applied PhD Seminar, IEB Internal Work-in-Progress Seminar.
Work in Progress
with María José González-Fuentes [new draft coming soon!]
Abstract: Can party behaviour explain why gender equality policies fail to increase women's political representation? Using data from seven municipal elections, we show that Brazilian political parties undermine gender quotas and funding requirements by strategically placing female candidates in races where they expect weak performance while reserving "sure" races for men. Despite national-level compliance requirements, weak enforcement at the municipal level enables this strategic distribution across localities based on electoral competitiveness.
Past presentations: 3rd ENS de Lyon – University of Bologna PhD Workshop, 8th Economics and Politics Workshop, CERGIC Internal Seminar, Gender Gaps Conference 2024, PSE-GPET Internal Seminar.